Multi-Causal Model Analysis of the Syrian Conflict

The Syrian End-Game: Sykes-Picot Redux or a Kurdish Free State?

The Syrian Conflict

Syria has been in a civil war since 2011. The uprising against regime of Bashar Al Assad grew from civil unrest and demonstrations that coincided with the broader “Arab Spring” into a full conflict within a matter of months. Communities quickly evolved from demonstrations to armed self-defense to forming brigades to actively oppose and eject Assad forces. The Syrian civil war has become what Magnus Lundgren calls “the most acute, politically significant, and complex among contemporary civil wars” (2016, 273).   Initially seen as a pro-democracy movement, the conflict quickly evolved to include sectarian battle lines pitting the majority Sunni population into various camps opposing the Shia Alawite dominated regime. Stefan de Mistura, U.N. Special Envoy to Syria estimated in April 2016 that the death toll was more than 400,000 (Hudson 2016).  

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The contest now includes Syrian Kurds, Lebanese Hezbollah fighters,
an Al Qaeda off-shoot currently known as Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham (the Front for
the Conquest of the Levant) and previously as the Nusra Front, both the U.S.
led coalition and Russians providing air support for various proxies, and the
Islamic State (ISIS). Although ISIS had a late arrival onto the scene, they
have seized significant territory in Syria and Iraq and imposed a harsh brand
of Sharia that somehow blends public beheadings with strategic communications
savvy.  The “#AlleyesonISIS” twitter
campaign was launched to coincide with the fall of the Iraqi city of Mosul and
established a digital front in the war (Singer, P.W. and
Brooking, E).

Other actors in the operational space include the Iranians, who have
shrugged off the bad feelings of their eight- year war and are supporting both
the Iraqis and Assad in recouping territory and retaining power respectively.  The U.S. has several thousand troops in Iraq
in advisory roles and others, not so secretly, in Syria assisting some of the
anti-Assad factions.  The Russians have
also committed forces into Syria in support of Assad. And both the U.S. and
Russia are conducting air strikes against various belligerents. Cambridge
historian Richard J. Evans sees distinct parallels between the current Mideast
situation and pre-World War I Europe …”rival Islamic factions standing proxy
for the rivalry between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, while an additional
element of danger is provided by Israel, with its nuclear arsenal, and again
Iran, with its persistent attempts to build one. China and Russia are lining up
behind one side while NATO and the US line up behind the other”(Keating, 2014). 

In August 2016, Turkey sent forces across the border into Syria on
an operation ostensibly supporting “Free Syrian Army” forces in clearing ISIS
elements away from the border. This operation has been widely recognized as intended
to prevent the Syrian Kurdish Group known as the PYD, from establishing a
contiguous territory under Kurdish control along the Turkey’s southern border(Arango, Barnard, and
Yeginsu, 2016) . 

Analysis through the Multi-Causal Model

The multi-causal
model is an appropriate analytic tool for the Syria conflict because it allows
for a more comprehensive integration of the “syndrome of factors”(Mason, Simon and
Rychard, 2005)  that cause violence.
Additionally, it is arguably the best fit in terms of the current development
of the Syria conflict.

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Other conflict analysis tools could be considered and some offer
various approaches and perspectives that could be useful.  Of those with the most potential, Glasl’s
escalation model may have offered insights that could have prepared mediators
or a third-party intervention in 2011. Unfortunately, the rapid escalation of
violence and seemingly endless expansion of belligerent groups, accelerated Syria
through every analytic stage in the model. By late 2012, the Syria conflict was
“fully into the abyss”(Mason, Simon and Rychard, 2005).   Similarly, conflict mapping is always a
useful tool for graphically simplifying and representing the conflict
stakeholders and their interactions. 
However, in the Syria case, the sheer volume of both actors,
interactions, shifting alliances and the speed of change, make simplification a
daunting task; Simply keeping the conflict map up to date and relevant could be
a challenge.

Finally, needs-fear mapping, like Glasl’s model, may be
inappropriate for the conflict context that has become the Syria conflict.  While it does acknowledge a third-party role,
which many agree will be a necessary component, it implies a willingness to
negotiate on the part of the belligerents. 
In the current stage of conflict development, there is little indication
of a willingness to negotiate absent a third party with sufficient power or
status to force the function.

Reasons

Analysis using the
Multi-causal model begins with an examination of the reasons, or root causes of
the conflict. Even this aspect is made complex by the rapid escalation that
occurred in Syria. The historical facts cite March 2011 when, riding the wave
of the Arab-spring uprisings and sparked by the arrest and mistreatment of a
group of teenagers who had painted anti-Assad slogans, pro-democracy
demonstrations occurred in scattered locations around the country. Heavy handed
responses on the part of Syrian security forces only served to escalate the
conflict. By June of 2011, neighborhood militias were forming and arming to
counter the Syrian Army tactics.

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While the arrest of graffitists may be the actual spark, long
established structural issues had plagued Syrian society. The Baath Political
Party’s dominance of virtually every aspect of Syrian life set the conditions
for an insider-outsider tension that simmered for decades. During the reign of
Hafez Assad, the economy functioned along lines of what could be considered old
money enterprises receiving some sort of advantage from the government, new
money based on oil and defense services, and the state bureaucrats that
controlled government contracts(Abboud, 2017). For the decade prior to the conflict
outbreak, attempts at modernizing and marketization only served to create a
greater economic disparity between haves and have-nots.

Similarly, political repression had a long history under the
Baathists. In February of 1982 the Assad regime largely destroyed the city of
Hama and killed between 20,00 to 40,000 of its own citizens to suppress an
Islamist uprising. An additional feature of Syrian life under the Baathists is
The Shu’bat al Mukhabarat al Askariyya, typically shortened to Mukhabarat, the
Military Intelligence Directorate. In reality, the Mukhabarat functions as the
regime’s secret police. Arrest without warrant, detention, torture and
“disappearance”, have been a way of life.

Religion plays a role in the Baath – Assad power continuum. Sunni
Muslims comprise the largest religious group in Syria with about 70% of the
population. Shia and Druze Islamic sects are a significant minority each
comprising about 3%. Christians represent approximately 11% of the population.
Notably, the Assad family are Alawite Muslims, a group that comprises
approximately 11% of the population. Some orthodox groups do not consider
Alawites truly Muslim, while the Ayatollah Khomeini once loosely acknowledged a
Shia – Alawite commonality.  A
designation that has helped foster Syrian – Iranian relations.  While the religious tensions of a minority
religion controlling the government seem self-evident, they are in fact
compounded by the generally secularist approach of the Baath party. For a
religious Sunni, a non-Sunni in control of the government is made worse by politicians
in control of the government who only assume a degree of religiosity when
necessary.

Targets

The targets of the
various belligerents are diverse. Beginning with the center of the storm, the
government of Syria would like nothing more than a return to status quo. They
have repeatedly labeled the other parties to the conflict using terms like
criminal elements, terrorists, and outsiders. By delegitimizing the opposition,
they effectively portray that there was no true causation other than criminals
and anarchists acting outside of the law. 

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The opposition groups lack cohesiveness and are fighting for a
variety of reasons but removal of Assad and the Baath Party is generally a
common trait. Moderate groups such as the Free Syrian Army tend to cite broader
democratization of a Syrian government and establishment of rule of law. The
Free Syrian Army has broad appeal among western and regional supporters because
it represents a centrist line that could be described as not too religious but
not too secular.

Groups driven by more fundamentalist underpinnings include Jabhat Fateh
Al-Sham (hereafter referred to as Jabhat), and The Islamic State in Iraq and
Syria or ISIS. Jabhat finds its roots in Al Qaeda and similarly believes no
Islamic state can exist without imposition of strict Sharia Law. Ousting Assad,
eliminating the Baath Party and establishment of a religious state are their
objectives. ISIS has a more extreme view than Jabhat. ISIS believes in
imposition of Sharia, tolerates no variance from their strict interpretation,
and ultimately believe their role is to set conditions for a final apocalyptic
battle that will occur in or around the Syrian town of Raqqa.

Moving slightly away from the center of the storm, the Syrian Kurds
have emerged as important actors in the Syria conflict. The Rojava Kurds (as
they call themselves) are closely linked to the Kurdish PKK and follow the
teachings of Abdullah Ocalan. For the Rojava Kurds, the conflict presents an
opportunity. Ocalan’s brand of Marxist and utopian political views have
provided the Rojava Kurds both the discipline and dogma to seek some form of
Kurdish self-governance and control of territory as an outcome of the conflict.
This objective, coupled with a long-term practice of utility maximization has
afforded the Kurds a degree of situational flexibility that other belligerents
have not enjoyed. In some areas, the Kurds co-exist with Syrian government
troops and in others they are actively engaged in combat.(Enzinna, 2015)
  

Groups that form the periphery of the Syria storm include the Iranians
and their proxy force, Lebanon based Hezbollah. The Iranian’s objective in
Syria supports the Syrian Governments objective – maintain Assad in power. Additionally,
the Iranians see Syria as part of their axis of influence in the region. Loss
of a friendly state impacts the perception of Iran as regional power and
increases the difficulties in maintaining open lines with Hezbollah

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 In contrast, a coalition of predominantly
Sunni states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Jordan
all provide varying, albeit minimal, military support to the anti-Assad
factions as part of the U.S. led coalition. The target for these regimes is
Assad ousted from power and installation of a democratic, preferably Sunni,
government.

On the very fringes of the Syrian conflict storm, but with outsized
interest and influence, are the regional and global powers. These include
Turkey, the European Union, Russia and the United States. Turkey sits in a
unique positon as a border state with Syria. Early in the conflict Turkey
strongly supported the removal of Assad; a position that has been tempered in
recent months with more conciliatory language as the government of Recep
Erdogan has worked to curry favor with Russia. Turkey also opposes any manner
of a Kurdish controlled territory on their southern border.

The European Union represents the group of countries that are most
significantly impacted by the flow of Syrian refugees. Many of the EU states
also provide military support to the U.S. coalition fighting against ISIS.
While there has been some equivocating on the details, the EU position seeks
Assad ousted and a democratic government installed.

Russia is an ally to the Syrian government. They provide material
support in the form of weapons and equipment as well as direct support in the
form of airstrikes, advisers and direct combat by Russian Special Forces. The
Russians are unique in their position of supporting a post conflict Syria with
Bashar Al Assad still in power. In recent months that position has shifted
slightly to allow negotiating room but still calls for a transition of power
that would allow the Baath Party to retain control of the government.

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The U.S. is regionally, the most active of the outside powers. The
U.S. leads the anti-ISIS coalition, supports the Free Syrian Army, provides
advisers and equipment to the Iraqis, and following the battle of Kobani, dramatically
increased its support to the Rojava Kurds. The U.S. targets may be the most
complex of any stakeholder and include a post conflict Syria with a
democratically elected and generally moderate and stable government in Syria.
The U.S. has consistently called for Assad’s ouster and even though a slight
weakening of that position seemed imminent, Assad’s recent use of chemical
weapons has strengthened U.S. resolve to remove him. The U.S. also wants a
stable region with NATO ally Turkey firmly in the U.S. camp, ISIS defeated, the
Iraqi government stabilized, Iranian ambitions for regional hegemony contained,
and a new Syrian government that will accept a balance of power vis-à-vis
Israel. 

Channels

An examination of
the channels that form group identity in this conflict is challenging. Using a
similar approach to the previous examination of targets, it begins in the
center of the conflict storm with the supporters of the Syrian government.
Politically, the Baath Party remains the anchor of group identity. It is also
the dominant actor in any discussion of greed and grievance concepts in Syria.
The Baath not only controlled politics, they dominated every aspect of Syrian
life. If you wanted a business license or favorable tax rate, being a Baathist
was in your best interest. Similarly, if you needed an expedited passport or
access to a hospital for your children, the same held true. If you were an
Alawite or a career military or intelligence official, you were most likely a
Baathist. This nexus of political, economic, social, and security controls,
form the cleavage that separates government supporters from the rest. And while
channels do not necessarily tie directly to conflict causation, this grouping
may be an exception.

The opposition groups are significantly fragmented. A 2013 BBC report estimated that there may be as many as 1,000 separate groups[1]. No single opposition group holds a monopoly on the characteristics that define the cleavages. There are feminist sub-groups active within Islamist dominated groups and there are Islamist sub-groups active within the Rojava Kurdish construct. The sheer complexity begs some sort of artificial construct as an analytic point of departure.

In that spirit, in broad terms, they can be considered in terms of
national, political and religious identities as a framework for forming group
identity. The Kurds have cross-regional presence that moved to the forefront of
their identity when they were ignored in the post-World War I colonial map
drafting exercise that still defines most middle-east borders. Traditional
Kurdish lands run from northern Iran in the east to the eastern provinces of
Syria with significant presence in Iraq and Turkey. In Syria, the Kurds are
dominated by the PYD political party with strong socialist and communist roots.
For this group, Kurdish nationalism, Marxist-socialist dogma, and the cult-like
authority of Abdullah Ocalan, form the cleavage that defines this group.(Tax, 2016) 

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Political identity, writ very broadly, is the dominant factor in the
supporters of the Free Syrian Army – a moniker that provides the umbrella for a
collective group of loosely affiliated Brigades and Fronts. Their supporters capture
the grievance side of the greed and grievance discourse and range from
political outcasts such as pro-democracy parties, to gender focused grass roots
women’s rights organizations that were, and continue to be, routinely marginalized
and excluded from Syrian political life (Davis, 2016).

Religious identity helps to define the most significant
characteristic driving the cleavage for a large portion of the opposition.
These groups could be further divided into very moderate (there is at least one
sub-group in the Free Syrian Army that identifies as Islamist), Islamists
focused on establishing a religious state, and Jihadist groups such as ISIS
that take Islamic orthodoxy to a violent and uncompromising extreme. Their
objective is purely religious and focused on establishment of a caliphate.

Triggers

Catalysts for
increasing violence in Syria have run the gamut. In the earliest days of the
unrest when there was still a chance of preventing full scale revolution, the
rough handling of a group of teenage detainees was clearly an escalatory
trigger.  All the more surprising given
that the Syrian police had probably done the same thing dozens, if not hundreds
of times in the past and elicited no response.

Similarly, the 2012 detonation of a bomb at the Syrian Ministry of Security
killed Bashar al Assad’s brother in law and a senior Syrian General. This
trigger prompted an immediate security crackdown in Damascus and eliminated any
willingness to negotiate on the part of the Syrian Government. Coincidentally,
the Syrian General was also the highest-ranking Christian in the Syrian Armed
forces and his death largely galvanized the Christian Minority in their support
for the Assad regime.

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Other high profile potential triggers included the 2013 use of
chemical weapons against largely civilian targets by the Assad regime. While
this attack prompted significant international outcry and diplomatic
maneuvering between the Russians and the U.S., the internal response between
belligerents was limited to increased entrenchment. By this point all the
parties had staked out their positions. Consistent with the unpredictability of
triggers, a much smaller scale chemical attack in 2017 prompted a swift and
targeted U.S. response noteworthy for its message value rather than any lasting
damage to the Syrian military.

Catalysts

In terms of
influencing the rate, duration, and intensity of the Syrian conflict, the
preponderance of catalysts are generated by outside actors. These catalysts
come from neorealist influenced state actors and through the informal network
of foreign fighters and Jihadis that flow in and out of the region.

The Battle for Kobani is the exception that provides the backdrop
for a confluence of internal and external factors that changed the conflict
dynamic. This battle placed Syrian Kurds besieged by ISIS fighters in a border
town with all safe ingress and egress controlled by the Turks. As a no-quarter
battle raged, the Turks allowed some refugees to evacuate but prohibited
Kurdish reinforcements or supplies from crossing Turkish territory. The U.S.,
in a diplomatic conundrum, carefully exerted pressure on Turkey and quietly
provided air support to the Kurds. In the end, against all odds and
predictions, the Kurds prevailed and emerged as one of the more effective
anti-ISIS groups in the battle space. Given the marketing savvy of the Kurds,
they would likely have benefitted regardless of the battle’s outcome; Kobani was
going to be portrayed as either the Rojava Kurd’s Masada, or Stalingrad.

A significant catalyst to the conflict came with the 2015 deployment
of Russian military forces into Syria. The introduction of advanced Russian
ground attack aircraft and special operations units had a telling effect on the
battlefield.  These forces provided
sufficient impetus for the Assad regime to seize the initiative and go on the
offensive in many areas. The Syrian governments 2016 recapture of the city of
Aleppo is indicative of the shifting fortunes in the battlespace. An event
unlikely to guarantee victory or defeat to either side, but certain to increase
the governments reticence to negotiate.

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Foreign fighters entering the battlespace are symptomatic of an
increasing Islamization among the rebel groups. This is a catalyst that could
transform the reasons for fighting from a what was sparked by democratization
movements to a move toward an Islamic government.  While the impact of foreign fighters is
negligible, the symbolism of brothers joining the fight is powerful and serves
to internationalize the cause.

Potential Interventions and Outcomes

Theoretical Foundations

Two theoretical approaches offer frameworks that address immediate
and long term conflict resolution in Syria. Neorealism and human needs theory
offer balanced, if not sometimes dichotomous, theoretical foundations for
shaping a comprehensive approach to intervention and possible
transformation.   Other theories have
some merit but fall short in ways that justify, at least in the immediate term,
placing them on a back burner.

The English school could be considered because it features a more
inclusive and comprehensive approach. The English school sees the world through
a macro level lens because of its willingness to synthesize other theories and
models to achieve understanding. While this seems like a logical and frankly,
grown-up way to interpret phenomena, it creates an inherent ambiguity with
respect to the borders of the English school; if anything can be used to
explain anything, is there any real utility?  There is also a heavy leaning on the part of
English school scholars to attribute causation to the elites in a society(Dunne, 2013)
. While this may be valid in some cases, it falls short in deciphering the
community based anomie at the root of Syria’s conflict.

Largely based on the political dogma of the Rojava Kurds, it could
be tempting to consider Marxism, or possibly a variant of neo-Marxism as a
theoretical lens. However, the impact of Marxism on the Kurds, heavily
influenced by the late American socialist Murray Bookchin(Tax, 2016), is
an anomaly that carries little weight across the continuum of belligerents in
Syria. 

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Neorealism may offer the appropriate triage capabilities for a
conflict that has evolved to the point of Syria’s civil war. A state centric
solution imposed by regional and global powers, motivated by potential economic
and power based gains, is a reasonable immediate course of action.  Notably, this approach to solving Syria, at
least temporarily, takes Syria’s agency out of the equation.  Neorealism in this case provides the
foundation for the formation of stakeholder states with both convergent
interests in a return to stability in Syria, and competing interests in the
resultant power and influence distribution. This is consistent with Waltz’s
description of alliances that exist between states with some, but not all
interest in common (Waltz, 1979).  Essentially,
competing powers acting in their own interests, must recognize first, that no
interests are served with Syria in perpetual conflict or effectively destroyed
as a state. Secondly, restoring stability to Syria must take priority over
competing for its ruins. Finally, a stable Syria is the foundation that allows
a return to a more predictable and safe balance of power competition; access to
Syrian oil, arms sales, favorable trade agreements, basing rights and pipeline
ventures all come back into play.

In contrast to neoliberalism’s macro and structural world view, human
needs theory focuses on the individual as a member of a collective or
community. John Burton, a leading voice in the human needs approach identifies
the need for “identity, recognition, security and personal development” as the
key factors in protracted social conflicts(Rubenstein, 2001).
This matches nicely with the long simmering pre-conflict conditions in Syria.

Rubinstein goes on to cite three important advantages to human needs
theory: the first, and most important with respect to Syria, is the ability to distinguish
between conflicts where traditional approaches will suffice. Secondly,
recognizing the necessity of designing conflict resolution approaches that
address the underlying, or causal, sources of conflict. Finally, human needs
theory separates individual and community needs and action from the theories of
elite manipulation or clashing culture notions (2001).

Sources of Conflict Causality

 Neorealism has
been a long-term influence in the modern state of Syria. The persistent
conflict with Israel and the U.S. / Soviet cold war initially made Syria a
fertile competition ground. Once firmly in the Soviet camp, with all the benefits
of military hardware and advisors, Syria enjoyed an elevated status in the
region that was exemplified by their intervention in the Lebanese civil war in
1976 and maintaining a military presence there until 2005.  This prestige and regional adventurism came
at a cost. The Syrian economy, particularly the informal economy driven by
connections and corruption, became entwined with the Lebanese economy and
fomented a mutual dependence that has had a negative effect on the average
Syrian(Yacoubian,
2006).  

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Syria’s role as a proxy to the Soviets, and standard bearer for the
persistent conflict with Israel has also set conditions for conflict causation.
Over time, the perpetual state of war with Israel has not only eroded the
economy, it has also contributed to a level of paranoia bordering on a
police-state. Seeing Israeli and American spies in every shadow allowed any
indication of less than full support to the regime to be cause for arrest. The
government was not shy about making an example; the story of Hama’s destruction
is well known inside of Syria.    

Human needs theory offers a different approach.  While much of the post-colonial behavior of
the Syrian government and elites set conditions, it was what occurred under those
conditions that ultimately proved to be causative. Economic disenfranchisement,
structural bias, corruption, and lack of personal security all simmered in the
background, while a centrally controlled state bureaucracy gave the outward
impression of quiet control. 

Addressing Causality

Causation in the Syria case, like seemingly everything in Syria, is
complicated. Without the conditions established by overarching state behavior
that are best explained through a neorealist lens, the human needs issue
probably never rises to the level of causing conflict escalation. This is not a
unique phenomenon.

Consider the post-World War I conditions that the allies levied on
Germany.  State actors functioning in an
acutely neorealist manner to formalize the post conflict power relationships,
set conditions for a perpetual domestic human needs crisis in the Weimar
Republic. Correspondingly, the post-World War II Marshall Plan, was also an
example of state actors, functioning in a neorealist approach, setting domestic
conditions in the former axis states to prevent another cycle of human needs
deprivation. And, to complete the full cycle, ultimately return those states to
being good actors in the state centric model of the world.

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While history never totally duplicates conditions, there are some
valid lessons that can be derived from the Marshall plan. What these theories
suggest is a that a comprehensive approach that addresses the strategic factors
and the sub-state factors, must be applied. Strategic factors are best explained
as those under the purview of state actors whose ultimate objectives are
defined by national interests and power relationships. The sub-state factors,
typically manifesting as domestically driven demonstrations of grievance, are best
defined by Burton’s framework of identity, participation, recognition and
security (Demmers,
2016).

Strengths / Limitations

Where neorealism
falls short in the Syria framework, is explaining or offering solutions to
conflict causation. The triage by outside states can stop the hemorrhaging and
impose conditions that are immediate, but in so doing may also increase the
likelihood of conflict reemergence. Where neorealism offers structural
solutions at a more macro-level, its explanatory power diminishes almost
entirely at the sub-state level.

This is consistent with an underlying assumption of neorealism, the
view of the state as the principal. An additional assumption of neorealism, is
the recognition of structural influence in world affairs, but only through the
structures that are deemed to matter.  In
contrast, human needs theory assumes that humans are social and want to belong,
rather than compete. This is the focus on identity and community that is such a
stark contrast to the assumptions of neorealism. This concept of belonging ties
into another assumption of human needs in that individuals will act out or
rebel, based on a desire to maintain the connection to their identity(Demmers, 2016).

There are weaknesses in human needs theory. In the Syria case, the
train has left the station; developing in-depth hindsight of the deep-seated
causes of the conflict offers little value in stopping the ongoing
carnage.  In general, human needs theory
is also challenged by the definition of needs and separating them from desires.
Burton’s concise approach has been expanded by others like Galtung who interpret
human need with a more inclusive paradigm that opens the door to ambiguity and
reduces clarity(Rubenstein,
2001) .  Does access to the
internet sit on par with access to clean drinking water? What about shelter
versus self-actualization? Is security from gender based violence more
important than security from hurtful words? Without assigning value to any of
these points of distinction, the obfuscation of something intended to simplify
an issue is apparent.  

A final weakness of human needs theory worth noting, is the need to
understand the identity of the actors and how that identity influences other
factors. In Syria, this is complicated by the sheer volume of player on the
field. The challenge for an outsider is to sort through the various religious,
social, ethnic and nationalist identities and then determine which measures
have the most effect. And, to be prepared for the fallout when many are not
satisfied. 

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Intervention Proposal

Interventions in
the Syria conflict should be designed fully informed by the reality of a
conflict that meets every potential worse-case scenario. There have been
significant civilian casualties, use of chemical weapons, a massive refugee
crisis, internal displacement, human rights abuses, and continued fighting with
little or no indication that belligerents are willing to negotiate a
resolution. In view of this, a two-stage intervention and
resolution/transformation plan offers both an immediate and long term approach
to resolving the Syria conflict.

This plan is only possible with the consent and active participation
of the state actors who have vested interests in a stable region. As Lundgren
noted, collaboration among state actors has shown promise in earlier attempts
at mediation in Syria, but only when there is consensus on expectations going
into the process (2016).  An agreement
between the stakeholder states must be established as a pre-condition to
intervention and should include an establishment of neutrality, or impartial
enforcement for the interested states. This idea of neutrality is critical
given the preexisting relationships and alliances among the various actors and
can be facilitated by terrain and spatial management that separates former
sponsors from former proxies. In practice this might be implemented with the
U.S. providing local governance in the Damascus area, the Russians in control
of Kurdish areas and the Turks securing the Syrian side of the Golan.

Two contentious aspects, among many in this agreement, will be
achieving consensus on the treatment of certain belligerent groups such as ISIS
and Jabhat. At face value, unanimity on these widely acknowledged terrorist
groups should be straight forward. However, the Rojava Kurds affiliation with
the PKK may prompt Turkey to demand their inclusion among the groups designated
as terrorists.  An additional challenge
is the immediate handling of Bashar Al Assad and other senior Baath Party
officials. While much of the world sees Assad as a criminal, his long-time relationship
with the Russians may complicate his status.

As preconditions are established, a massive and empowered
international response offers the only viable option as a first step towards
peace-making.  Despite the risks and
certainty of casualties, the initial stages of a Syrian conflict resolution
must resemble a Bosnia or Somalia type intervention model. This includes
imposition of a cease-fire, establishment of a no-fly zone, freezing all
belligerent forces in place, seizure of WMDs, and a dusk to dawn curfew.
Enforcement must be swift and decisive. While this appears heavy handed, it
will, in very short order, put an end to the conflict.  

As effective as overwhelming force can be, it is a high-risk
approach that must be managed carefully. 
It is true that a robust military presence can overstay its utility but,
it is also true that it can be withdrawn prematurely and allowing the situation
to deteriorate. A reasonable metric for judging the military presence is the
Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) process and how fighters
transition back into society. The DDR process is also an example of a bridging
activity between phase I, led by a largely military presence supervising the
disarmament and demobilization and phase II, with international organizations
and civil society taking the lead on reintegration.

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Even in this military heavy phase, military governance must be
replaced as quickly as possible by some manner of international civilian
authority; this is the where the U.N. can provide extraordinary value added by
demonstrating leadership and signaling that the intervention is not simply a
western land grab.  Soldiers on the
street must be replaced by civilian police and critical services must be
reestablished. As simple as it sounds, the preceding three paragraphs describe
broad objectives that would probably require a 6 to 18-month window to
achieve. 

Phase II represents the shift from a neorealist approach to a human
needs approach focused on resolution and potentially transformation. Phase II
is not triggered by some definitive end-state or decision point in Phase I.
Rather, it can and should overlap with many activities occurring
simultaneously; there is no rule that says you can’t have peacebuilding
workshops occur while food convoys are still escorted by intervention forces.

This phase also represents a long-term commitment on the part of
sub-state actors to achieve a full conflict resolution. This may take a
generation before lingering conflict memories are no longer personal. In a
nut-shell, this will require a strategic approach. As Lederach has argued in
delineating the differences between resolution and transformation, “we need a
strategic vision in order to assess and develop specific plans and responses”(Lederach, 2015).
His recognition of the constantly evolving nature of transformation is also
particularly germane to the Syria conflict.

In practicality, resolution and transformation of the Syria
conflict, will be a bee hive of activity. On the governmental end of the
spectrum, establishment of governance from the local to federal level,
restoration of basic services, elections, constitutions, new legislation, and
infrastructure restoration are just a few of the tasks facing a new government.
Simultaneously, the internal and external stakeholders should go through the
processes necessary to start healing Syrian society, reconciliation
commissions, transitional justice activities, and reparations are all steps
that begin to redress the deprivations at the core of conflict causation.   

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The final and most important aspect of resolution / transformation
in Syria, is passing ownership of the processes to the Syrians. Abu-Nimer
highlights some basic assumptions about middle eastern resolution processes
that are salient in this case.  Among
them, the importance of social norms and customs in shaping conflict resolution
and, the future and future relationships are critical considerations for the
participants.(Abu-Nimer,
1996)

Conclusion

 The Syria conflict signifies complexity at
many levels. The conflict itself has maintained a level of dynamism rarely seen
in modern conflict. There has been no stabilization of lines or significant
lulls in battle that could crack the door for negotiation or mediation. The
destruction of infrastructure and property has been immense. Cities like Aleppo
and Kobani closely resemble Berlin in 1945. The human suffering is even more
profound. Some estimates range as high as 500,000 dead. Syrian refugees are
stacked up in refugee centers in Turkey and are streaming into Europe as fast
as the EU countries can absorb them.

 Possibly more complex than the battle space are the various stakeholders that have an interest in how Syria emerges from this conflict. This paper has done only partial justice in comprehensively portraying the full spectrum of states and other parties that have a vested interest in influencing the outcome. Without question, those with equities, or perceived equities, will demand acknowledgement and inclusion. 

                Analyzing this conflict though
the lens of the multi-causal model proved useful in cataloging and simplifying
to some degree, the catalysts, motivations, and actors that either set
conditions for, or were directly causative in the conflict. This model also
proved instrumental in highlighting the value of neorealism and human needs
theory in providing depth of understanding and potential resolutions. While not
arguing for exclusive primacy of either theory in the Syria case, reasonable
efficacy became evident as the theories strengths, weaknesses and assumptions
were compared to the data teased out in the multi-causal model.

Finally, this paper offered a macro scale approach to intervention, informed by neorealism and human needs theory. While acknowledging the “hand waving across a big map” nature of the plan, it does provide a reasonable strategy for moving forward. Clearly the devil is in the details and significant governmental and diplomatic energy is still required before any sort of plan could be implemented.  The scope and cost of the effort is also self-evident but is easily tempered by the scope and cost of the conflict to this point.

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References

Abboud, S. (2017). The
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Absolutely! We’ll draft an outline based on your topic so you can approve the plan before we write—keeps everything aligned from the start.

Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics (1. print. ed.). NY: McGraw –
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[1] From a 2013 BBC report by  Lina Sinjab available at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24403003

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