Influence of Far-Right Parties on Mainstream Politics: UK and Germany

Would you say that the success of far-right parties has an impact on the positions of mainstream parties? In your essay, consider at least two countries to make your argument.

The
influence of far-right parties on mainstream parties has remained a relatively
undeveloped area in political literature with many instead writing explanatory
pieces on the emergence of such parties (Williams, 2006). This is because
far-right parties have been largely successful across a great deal of Europe in
recent years. To highlight this, in Britain there was the brief, but meaningful
rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), in Germany the
Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD), in Austria the Freedom Party of
Austria (FPO) and in France the Front Nationale to name but a few. This essay
will argue that the success of these far-right parties has brought around
changes in the more mainstream, centre-ground parties in two ways; both in
regards to ideological position, and in reference to their position in
government. This essay will also argue that the size of this impact on ideology
depends greatly on the original position of the mainstream party on the
political spectrum. There is a great distinction between a rightward leaning
party’s reactions to a far-right party’s success and a leftward leaning party’s
reaction. However, this essay ultimately concludes that it is impossible to
state that the mainstream parties’ reactions are as a direct result of
far-right parties. This is because there are a great deal of political
influences that could impact the positions of mainstream parties. Moreover, the
terms “mainstream parties” and “far-right parties” must be defined to
effectively argue the magnitude of any impact. The phrase mainstream parties
refers to the more traditional, often relatively centre, parties that do not
hold extremist views. On the other hand, far-right parties are essentially
political parties characterised by being on the right of mainstream parties
ideologically, or those who promote xenophobia and the social exclusion of
non-nationals (Williams, 2006).

Academics
argue that far-right parties certainly influence the ideological position of
mainstream parties for several reasons which will be explained shortly.
Moreover, mainstream parties that align themselves on the right side of the
political spectrum undergo greater changes. Right-wing parties are evidently
more open to ideological change as a result of far-right emergence, whereas
left-wing parties are a great deal more resilient for reasons that shall be
explained. The following two paragraphs detail the differences between the
ideological reactions of originally left leaning mainstream parties and
originally right leaning mainstream parties towards far-right parties.

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In regards to right-wing, traditional, mainstream parties, the far-right parties essentially drain the further right, more extreme section, of their voter base. These individual voters previously had no viable alternative beforehand, and therefore aligned with the closest party to their view which had a chance of success to avoid a wasted vote. With the emergence of a far-right party, the individual voter has a party closer to their own political belief and thus supports the far-right party instead, sapping the original mainstream party of votes. To counteract this effect, the mainstream parties must appeal to these lost voters by shifting their ideology rightwards, even if it be by a single policy. This is since, according to the single-issue party thesis, many far-right parties are essentially single policy pressure groups in regards to immigration with many political commentators referring to them as the anti-immigration parties (Mudde, 1999). For example, it was said by Wright and Cooper, that the United Kingdom Independence Party was draining the Conservative party’s more fringe supporters by offering a manifesto pledge of a Brexit referendum. Thus, the more centre-ground party, the Conservatives in this case, had to second that promise to stop their support from leaving them for UKIP. Hence, this is the reason why we saw a 2015 general election manifesto promise of a Brexit referendum from the Conservatives. As Wright and Cooper (2016) put it, in 2015 “for Tory MPs facing re-election this [UKIP’s success in polling] looked ominous. They were worried, not that Ukip [sic] would take their seats but they would take enough of their votes to hand victory to Labour.” Therefore, to ensure victory the Conservatives had to lurch rightward on the political scale. Han argued that this outcome showcased the fact that far-right parties could benefit by pulling mainstream parties towards their own ideological positions (Han, 2014).

The
emergence and success of far-right parties can arguably cause centre ground,
mainstream parties to lurch to the right on single policy issues to stop them
losing specific voting blocks. Han rightfully states that “the electoral
success of RRPs [Radical right-wing parties] is believed to have applied
pressure… to mainstream parties (MPs) on both sides of the political spectrum” (Han,
2014) and therefore we must speak not only of right-wing mainstream parties,
but also those who are more leftward leaning. Left leaning mainstream parties
are much less likely to have ideological waverings since many members of those
parties have fundamentally different political beliefs, which are at ends with
the policies of far-right parties. Moreover, left leaning parties are aware
that they cannot simply politically “flip-flop” or “U-turn” on key policies as
Kollman, Miller and Page rightfully state that “voters may be wary of a party
that moves across the ideological spectrum in search of votes” (Kollman, Miller
& Page, 1998, p141). This opinion of how parties making gross changes in
stance can ruin party legitimacy is furthered in Tavits’ work (Tavits, 2007). “Adhering
to certain values serves the purpose of defining a party’s identity and helping
to build a reputation of commitment, consistency, and probity. Ideological
movement devalues these reputations.” In short, left-leaning mainstream parties
are simply not influenced to the same extent as right leaning mainstream
parties by far-right parties, because of “historical ideological commitments” (Bale
et al, 2010).

However,
when looking at these sources critically it is possible to see that the impact
of far-right parties on mainstream parties is limited. This limitation is a key
argument of this essay. When comparing Han’s, Bale’s and Tavits’ articles, with
Akkerman’s we see this disparity between academics’ beliefs on the topic.
Akkerman used a different data set, which analysed a total of 176 manifestos
and concluded that “the impact of radical right parties on mainstream policy
agendas tends to be overestimated” (Akkerman, 2015). The fact that different
data yielded such different results would suggest that far-right party’s
influence is impossible to see isolated from other political influences. While
Akkerman still concurs that mainstream parties are indeed influenced, he states
the extent to which they are influenced is debatable. This essay argues that
correlation is not necessarily causation; just because select data sets show a
correlation between the far-right’s rise and manifesto changes does not mean
one caused the other. There are a great deal of political agents that can
influence a party’s manifesto, and therefore to state a change in a mainstream
party’s manifesto is as a result of a far-right party is a statement that fails
to look at the wider political picture. In this case there are several
academics that link these manifesto changes to other causes. For example, “Jeanette Money makes a convincing case
that the move towards restriction in Britain and France long pre-dated the
emergence of the extreme-right, and was linked to electoral dynamics” (Money,
cited in Schain, 1999). Therefore, whilst the claims of Han, Bale et al and
Tavits are duly noted, Akkerman’s criticism of the claims being overstated
carries with it a weight too large to ignore. The fact that another data set
produced such different results, in tandem with bringing to mind all the
possible influences on mainstream parties’ manifestos, showcases how the
possible influence of far-right parties is difficult to determine.

Another
debatable aspect of the question comes with the term “position”. Hitherto,
position has been discussed in the sense of ideological position on the
political spectrum. However, the position of a party can also be seen in
reference to their position in the political system. More simply the mainstream
parties’ potential position in government, such as majority or minority party
or the opposition party. Similarly, in regards to position in governance, the
original ideological position of the party makes a difference as to how they
react; leftist parties experience greater opposition whereas right-wing parties
experience this whilst also losing potential voters and therefore power. The
following two paragraphs highlight the ways that the potential governmental
position of a mainstream party is impacted by the success of a far-right party.

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When
there are more far-right parties being “successful”, consequently mainstream
parties, as well as the far-left parties, must inherently be less successful.
The mainstream parties are more likely to be influenced by this as it is
unlikely for an individual voter to take such a great leap from the far-left to
the far-right. When one considers that many European countries utilise
proportional representation the truthfulness of that statement is laid bare,
for each percentage point of a far-right party’s success is directly
proportional to the amount any other mainstream party loses. Thus, any success
of a far-right party is detrimental to a mainstream party’s position in
governance. As a result, mainstream parties will find it harder to gain a
position of power due to potential voters, voting for these populist, far-right
parties.  In many cases this will mean
far-right parties will be members of the opposition in government. This is in
part due to the proportional representation systems used across consensus
democracies in Europe. However, in some cases, such as in Austria, it can also
mean they may form the actual government. The Austrian People’s Party (OVP)
will likely form a coalition with the FPO (a far-right party) to have a total
of 104 seats, following provisional exit poll results, when 92 is a majority.
Whilst a minority OVP government is still an alternative (Oltermann, 2017), the
FPO’s success has still influenced the governmental position of the OVP. This
means the OVP’s position and power in governance is highly influenced by the
success of this far-right party.

Moreover, the success of far-right parties can also impact the position of a party in government as it impacts the mainstream party’s reputation. The rise of a far-right party during the tenure of a specific leader can be detrimental to that leader’s reputation, which in turn is often detrimental to the mandate of the party in power. Take for example Angela Merkel, who has been chancellor for Germany since 2005, it has been said that she “has secured a fourth term as German chancellor but with her authority diminished, after… [she] failed to halt the march of rightwing populists” (Connolly, 2017). The rise, rather than the emergence of AfD, under Merkel has threatened the Christian Democratic Union of Germany’s approval and authority in the German political sphere. Alternative für Deutschland achieved a historic third place success, holding 13% of the vote according to exit polls, which marked the first time in almost six decades that an openly nationalist party will enter the Bundestag (Connolly, 2017). The rise of an anti-establishment party under a well cemented member of the establishment, would suggest that Merkel is leading the electorate to become disenchanted with standard democratic institutions.  This obviously reflects poorly on Merkel’s governance and tenure, and overall reduces her authority. Therefore, it is relatively apparent how the rise of any far-right parties under a political agent’s leadership is seen as detrimental to their mandate and character.

To conclude, there are a great deal of theories as to what extent the far-right influences mainstream parties, as explained in this essay with reference to Han, Bale et al and Tavits. However, these theories do not consistently hold true when using other data sets, and fail to look at all the other possible influences that could cause mainstream parties to change. Several academics state the success of far-right parties indubitably impacts both the ideological position (Han, 2015) and position in government of mainstream parties. Ideologically, far-right parties are able to drag right-wing mainstream parties towards the right, but are less effective at pulling left-wing mainstream parties rightwards (Han, 2015) due to historical ideological commitments (Bale et al, 2010). In reference to government, far-right parties are able to influence the position of mainstream parties by taking potential voters reducing their majority, by influencing their position in a coalition and by weakening the authority and perception of their leader. However, as Akkerman states, it is easy to overstate the influence of far-right parties on mainstream parties (Akkerman, 2015). Moreover, to quantify the exact influence that far-right parties have on mainstream parties is impossible; for example it is simply not feasible to state all manifesto changes are as a direct result of their growing influence.

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Bibliography:

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