Climate variability on the regeneration success of the Eucalyptus in South-Eastern Australia

Introduction

Project Objectives and Research Questions

Research question

Research Question 1:

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Background

Experimental design and methods

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Background

Experimental Design and Methods

Results

Research Question 3:

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Background

Research Question 4:

Background

Relevance of the study

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Timeline for the completion of PhD

Reference

Appendix 1

Appendix 2 : Methods for chapter 2

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Appendix 3.

 

Climate variability on the regeneration success of the Eucalyptus in South-Eastern Australia

  Introduction

Vegetation response differently to environmental changes and its response prerequisite is affected by the fluctuation in the environmental condition through the time (Hennessy, Fitzharris et al. 2007, Chen, Hill et al. 2011, Mok, Arndt et al. 2012). Vegetation is an important element of global ecosystems and plays important roles in the mitigation process of climate change (Bonan 2008). All the ecological processes are very much influenced by the change in climate (Stenseth, Mysterud et al. 2002). The change in environmental condition is very rapid; variation in the climate of consecutive two years are as great as the temperature over the period of 30 years (Huntingford, Jones et al. 2013). The change in climate will likely effect the regeneration of the vegetation thou the process of regeneration in regards to climate is less studied (Mok, Arndt et al. 2012).

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Regeneration in the plant community is formation of new plant tissue and regeneration of plants are susceptible to temperature and soil moisture, the latter of which is also a key determinant of establishment success in Eucalyptus (Florence 1964, Stoneman 1994). Mortality of germinants tends to be highest during the first growing season due to soil moisture deficits (Stoneman 1994), but frost can also prevent species from regenerating, particularly at higher elevations. The sensitivity of eucalypt germinants to climate suggests that climate change could have large impacts on its recruitment ability of eucalypts (Mok, Arndt et al. 2012). Mok et al.  predicted that climate change could lead to large spatial shifts in the regeneration niches of four species of Eucalyptus in southeastern Australia. The potential for large changes in regeneration potential could thus have serious impacts on the conservation and management of eucalypts.

With the climate influencing the regeneration process there are many prominent topics for the discussion in the field of ecology. The concept of whole ecological study of plant started with the idea of succession and how it plays role. A pathway of succession is a temporal pattern of ecosystem change (i.e. the sequence of plant communities that develop and change during succession) (Clements 1916). There can be various reason for the change to happen and mostly the reason is disturbance. The model of succession is a conceptual construct to explain a successional pathway by combining various mechanisms and specifying the relationships among the mechanisms and the various phases or stages of a successional pathway. After the ideas of Clements about the succession was established for a long time in the field of ecology.  Egler came up with his theory of vegetation development for the abandoned land in 1954 called initial floristics model vs the relay floristics. The Relay floristics theory explains the model of successive incoming and outgoing of the species and creating a suitable environment for the incoming species even at the cost of disappearance of outgoing species. This process repeat itself until there is no stable species to take over and exist. The second theory is called initial floristics composition which refers to the element which invades or has invaded at the time of abandonment of the area. After the abandonment, the area is first invaded by forbs and grasses assuming predominance and trees at last (Egler (1954), (Connell and Slatyer 1977, Wilson, Gitay et al. 1992, Harvey and Holzman 2014). An assessment of this relative importance of the species is necessary in vegetation management and to understand that selective elimination of some elements of the flora can produce new and stable plant communities.

The finding of different ecologists in the field of natural ecosystem when the process of regeneration is progressing can be reflected on dominance diversity ideas of Whittaker (1965), who concluded that plant communities could be represented by a range of curves relating the importance values of species and the number of species (Fig. 1). In community of different species composition will have the curve in different way. The curve will also depend on the importance of species, represented by type (a) curves, where it is represented that one species has more productivity compared to any other species in the area. With this curve, there is shortage of number of different species and species abundance is concentrated around the productivity of one species. At the other end of the fig (1 c) there is no clear dominant species, rather a lot of clustered species with higher productivity rate which is followed by the large number of imperceptibly productive species and a very small number of rare species. Many communities around the world are intermediate in nature curve (1 b).

Fig 1: Whittaker, 1965 the species diversity dominance curve a: species poor community; b,c species rich community

Whittaker, after the explanation of the curve in 1965 went ahead and moreover explained the theory for the explanation of the curve (above) known as beta (Anderson, Crist et al.) diversity (Whittaker 1972). β diversity is mainly explained as the variation in species composition among sites in a geographically confined area of interest. Its value will vary with the extent of the area, the number of sampling units and the sampling interval in the area under study. However after beta diversity the other concept following is alpha diversity. Alpha (α) diversity is species composition at individual quadrants. The guide used to measure alpha diversity estimates the variation in species uniqueness of individuals observed at a particular site of study (Fisher, Corbet et al. 1943) thou beta diversity differentiates itself compared to alpha diversity. Interestingly, alpha and beta diversity are defined as dissimilarity in individualities of species among and within the site (Whittaker 1972, Walker 1992). It is the variation in the community structure among the number of samples units as rooted in the description of the author described by (Whittaker 1960).

Current understand of the environmental variation, vegetation development and diversity is at its peak but how these three are inter-connected and how these factors can be influencing each other can be interesting. For the completion of PhD project, we will be focusing on finding out the interaction between the three components discussed above on the human induced regeneration and the study will include different aspect from ground level verification to the landscape level high resolution imagery study of the site to understand the vegetative development of the human induced regeneration when the environmental variables are changing.

  Project Objectives and Research Questions

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it represents studies with detail information

            Studies with interrelationship not fully understood

The main purpose to conduct this project is to understand the impact of climate change on regeneration process of the eucalypts. There have been different studies conducted on eucalypts in southeastern Australia (Ashton 1956, Ashton 1976, Adams and Attiwill 1986, Squire, Campbell et al. 1991, Ashton and Chinner 1999, Lutze, Campbell et al. 1999, Squire, Geary et al. 2006, Fagg, Lutze et al. 2013) but the focus on human induced regeneration under the Clear-felling burning System (CBS) model and what results from studying these human managed forest and the consequences which follows when they fail to regenerated. The main objective of this study is to find out what factors are, affecting presence /absence of the eucalypts and the most preferred management system in southeastern Australia for managed forest.

  Research question

1. When does regeneration fail? The role of environmental variation on initial stocking.

Sub questions: Defining regeneration failure: the influence of time and initial stocking on determining regeneration success.

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2. What is the role of initial stand structure on alpha- and beta-diversity after timber harvesting?

Sub questions: Do environmental factors interact with stand structure to influence alpha- and beta-diversity after timber harvesting?

3. Does the retained tree effects the regeneration of harvested plot?
4. Can density of eucalyptus reflect on the diversity of the managed forest?

Below I will give a brief overview of the literature behind the question, background for the study, site selection and methods that will be employed to address each of the research questions listed in the previous section.

  Research Question 1:

Background

Regional climate change effects are already being observed in many places around the world and Australia is not excluded from the process. The future climate may bring warmer and drier conditions to southeastern Australia (Hennessy, Fitzharris et al. 2007) and during the period of 1950-2006, autumn rainfall of southeastern Australia has decreased by about 40% (Cai and Cowan 2008). These change in climate patterns may place many Eucalyptus species in a climate regime that exceeds their environmental tolerance (Mok, Arndt et al. 2012). In the temperate forests of southeastern Australia, Eucalyptus species are most sensitive to environmental change at the recruitment stage, where the impacts of moisture and temperature can lead to widespread mortality in germinants (Mok, Arndt et al. 2012). Climate change will alter the ecological cues, that seeds and seedlings depend on for regeneration, causing changes in recruitment success following disturbances. This could lead to the loss of key Eucalyptus species in the future. There currently is little quantitative research on the broad-scale impact of climate variability on Eucalypt regeneration.

Southeastern Australian forest encompass broad topographic and edaphic ranges and are managed under different systems. The main silvicultural system and subject to this study is clear-felling burning system (CBS). The system started after the settlement of Europeans in Australia and has been used widely in the management of Eucalyptus species, especially in southeastern Australia. CBS involves removing all the merchantable trees from a coupe, which are not required for environmental purposes such as seed tree, regrowth retentions or habitat trees, in a single felling from the coupe. After the felling, slash is removed and burnt for the seed bed preparation for sowing purpose. This process of burning is to mimic the natural disturbance of wildfire which is needed for the Eucalyptus seeds to germinate. Seeds are applied in autumn and the main characteristics of this system is the establishment of maximum light for the seedling, minimum protection for the seedbed, less over-wood competition and minimum natural seed supply. This system is the most commonly used for the establishment of Eucalyptus regnans for timber production.

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Regeneration is higher in these stand  especially with the initial stand density of the plot is lower (Leak and Solomon 1975). Stand density is one of the main factors influencing stand structural components on shrubs and herb cover and on species richness, composition and diversity. Lower densities of Eucalyptus regeneration, could increase canopy openness and ensure adequate resources for shrub and herb species (Wilson and Puettmann 2007). A study conducted in Wallaby Creek, Victoria on the development of even-aged stands found that density and structure of Eucalyptus regnans was affected by the north-westerly and south easterly aspect of the stand (Ashton 1976) and mean dominant height and diameter was higher in south-easterly aspect but the number of living individuals of plant kingdom was higher in the north-westerly aspect of the stand. The corresponding difference in the north-westerly and south-easterly aspect was partly related to the fact that cooler slopes north-westerly produce relatively more energetic dominant trees, reducing the amount of light to the ground and killing suppressed trees while on the other hand on warmer slopes of south-easterly, more light infiltrates to the ground and the suppressed individuals survived longer. Another reason behind the consistent difference in stand structure and density is referred back to irregular intervals of drought during different time periods (Ashton 1976). Stand density and structural difference in a forest can be interesting as it can transformation the forests in the form of living individual of plant kingdom diversity.

Experimental design and methods

For this study, we will be analyzing inventory data generated by VicForests for a regeneration survey for logging coupes based on their standards for regeneration per ha which were conducted after 15-30 months of sowing. For a successfully stocked even-aged stand, at least one acceptable seedling in 65% of a 2.27 m radius (16m²) plots placed on a 20 m * 80 m systematic grid had to be detected. No discrete area greater than 1 ha with less than 400 stems per hectare. An acceptable seedling from this survey is defined as the species indigenous to the area in either a seedling, lignotuber or coppice form. These must be more than 40 cm in height for ash species and 25 cm in height for non-ash species. We have presence/absence data for about 900, out of which 180 coupes falls under the definition of unstocked coupes. The outcomes of the survey conducted by VicForests work is being analyzed using high spatial (250m) and temporal (daily) resolution climate data developed by Stewart and Nitschke (2017) to explore the role of temperature, precipitation, aridity, and vapor pressure deficits in the months leading up to and following the sowing of eucalypts seeds. Long-term impacts of climate variability will also be explored using annual changes in climate. To explore the impacts of climate change on future forest recruitment patterns we will follow the generalized linear model which incorporated future climate change scenarios into the GLM model to explore the potential impacts of climate change on the recruitment potential of different eucalyptsspecies especially Mountain ash, Alpine ash and mountain mixed species. Some of the generalized linear model of the three-different type of forest can be seen in Appendix 1. All the variables studies in this chapter will be explained in appendix 2.

Figure 2: a; the state of Victoria. b; the region for the site study. c; the coupes and the plot level data for the coupes. d. Coupes with plot level data

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Research Question 2:

Background

Eucalyptus is the most common and well known species of the Australian ecosystem. Among all the other species, Eucalyptus regnans is a straight tall tree, 40-95 meter high, bark sub-fibrous on the lower part and smooth and ribbony higher. The species forms pure tall forests on deep, fertile and friable soils in moist mountain valleys between the elevation of 200-1100m altitude with average rainfall exceeding 1000mm and in Victoria occurs in Central, Southern and Eastern Highlands and South Gippsland (Ashton,1956). This species is managed there and regenerated under the already described CBS system. For 1.3 million ha are available and suitable for saw log production (approximately 90% of the total area is allocated for the CBS management system) (Lutze, Campbell et al. 1999). The climatic requirement of the species for a successful establishment are mean annual rainfall between 700-2000 (mm), dry season between the months of January-May, mean maximum temperature of the hottest month 18-29(⁰C), mean minimum temperature of the coldest month 0-10 (⁰C), mean annual temperature 10-20(⁰C), and absolute minimum temperature >-7(⁰C) (Booth and Pryor 1991). Stand density and age of Eucalyptus regnans are the important variables for understanding the stand dynamics of the species. For the even age stand of isolated thickets at the age of 8, 16 and 26-year-old, the stand total number of living individuals of Eucalyptus regnans should be 205,000, 17,440, 1915 and 1205 per ha respectively (Ashton 1976). The number of seeds sown per ha in the case of human induced regeneration is 200,000 seeds per ha.

Diversity in the Mountain ash state forest is the concern for all the stakeholder. Managed Mountain Ash forests in Victoria were established with human induced regeneration and the coupes of mountain ash are being used as production forest. But with occurrence of frequent fires in this kind of forest it is suggested that it will take some time for the species to established in a stable state (Lindenmayer, Hunter et al. 2009, Liu, Stanturf et al. 2010, Mori and Johnson 2013, Murphy, Bradstock et al. 2013). With fire occurring more frequently it is more likely that the dominance of pioneer species increases and without Eucalyptus being dominant species, occurrence of fire will change the species composition (Fairman, Nitschke et al. 2016). In this scenario, when the regeneration has failed the species taking over will be Acacia as described in the concept of landscape trap (Lindenmayer, Hobbs et al. 2011). We will try to understand if the diversity of these stands change with failure of regeneration of Mountain ash as described in landscape trap or its more to the forest structure and diversity then Acacia being dominant species.

Large areas of land are still covered with Eucalyptus regnans in the central highlands of Victoria. The structural complexity of reforested sites increased with diversity and density of planted stems (Kanowski, Catterall et al. 2003). In a study conducted in Pennsylvania, it was concluded, that 52% of the variation in species richness was attributed to environment, space and land-use history of the site. The study explains that 30% of variation is dependent on environmental variables, with land use explaining 9%, but interestingly the spatial descriptors explained 45% of the variation (Murphy, Audino et al. 2015). In a similar study conducted in the temperate forest in southeastern Australia, they predicted that explanatory variables (space, environmental and disturbance) was accounted for 34-55% of beta diversity (Kasel, Bennett et al. 2017). Diversity of these stands are most directly proportional to the structure of the stand and the density of the dominant species. For the understanding of the density diversity of the Eucalyptus regnans stand we will be using methods described below.

Fig 3: Development of landscape trap in Mountain ash forests in central highlands of Victoria, Australia (fig adopted from (Lindenmayer, Hobbs et al. 2011))

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Experimental Design and Methods

To figure out the diversity in these differently stocked stand, we will use point quarter method in various stocked plots (ref) with combination of prism swipe. The point quarter method is one of the most applied plotless sampling methods used for the survey of the stationary organisms, the distance between the center of the plot and subject organism is measured. Each sample is randomly located in the area to be sampled. The area to be sampled is divided into four imaginary quadrants in the direction of North, East, South and West. In each quadrant, the closest tree above 5 cm in that area is included in the sample and the distance from center and DBH of the tree will be measured. DBH is measured with a diameter tape at 1.3 m above the ground. In each coupe (85 coupe available), 25 coupes with different densities will be studied to figure out how density and diversity are related. In each coupe we will study, 3 plots depending depending on the low, medium and high density. The selection of the plot will be done with creation of heat map of each coupe for the allocation of plots in the study area. A circular plot of 3.57 m² is established to count the abundance of all the grass, shrubs and tree species of the understorey. Crown cover at 4 quadrants and the center of plot will be measured with the use of densiometer. Also, soil samples will be collected for a seed bank study and in each plot, 20 cores with 5 in each quadrant in each direction up-to a depth of 3 cm will be collected. For the collection of these soils the core diameter of 5.75 cm will be used. The soil will be in the green house to observe the species abundance for 10 months.

Fig 4: Illustration of point quarter method and measurement of different factors in the forest

Results

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We have completed the sampling of two coupes for the trial of the method. The results of the coupes which include 7 plots can be seen below.

Table 1: Relative density, relative dominance and importance value of the species studied in four plots of the Central Highlands, Victoria

Species	Relative density	Relative dominance	Importance value	IV rank
E.regnans	0.56	73.63	1.29	1
A.obliquinervia	0.33	16.38	0.52	2
A.dealbata	0.08	9.99	0.18	3

Fig 4: Species accumulation curve of the plant found in the Central Highlands of Victoria

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  Research Question 3:

Background

 

Regrowth Retention Harvesting (RRH) is an alternative method for the harvesting of trees.  A substitute over the clear-felling burning and sowing (CBS) system. This method came in place for the protection of habitat for species promoting the availability and development of older structure within the managed forest for the wildlife and their connectivity to the forest and landscape. The area effected by the retained trees is one tree length playing an important role in seed dispersal, increase edge effect on the border of the plot, increasing diversity in plant community, and influencing the environmental factors such as light, temperature and soil moisture for certain species within the tree length. RRH is the newest harvesting method adopted by the VicForests for the mountain ash forest. The concept is famous for frequency, extent and intensity of disturbances caused by the productive forest management model which can be minimized for their impact on the biodiversity based on species richness. It is supposed to reduce structural and functional difference between natural and production forests (Fedrowitz, Koricheva et al. 2014). In those regard regrowth retentions when compared to the CBS system will enhance ecosystem processes, increased structural complexity of the post-harvest forest, foster similarity in vegetation composition between pre-and post-harvest forest, protected and enhance old-growth forest structures that provide habitat for a range of forest-dwelling species (now and future).

With collaboration with Vicforest we are going to study the impact of the regrowth retention harvesting on the clear felled burnt plots. We will conduct the study in four coupes for evaluation and monitoring of the ecological impact of the regrowth retention. For this study, we will have two transects in each coupe are to be studied (three out of four coupes study for the above ground diversity post harvesting has already been conducted). The principles behind selecting these coupes where gradient of influence of the edges effect on the following area is different. Forest influence on harvested area and edge effects on unharvested area. Soil seed bank collected (post harvesting). Seed traps need to be installed after fire in autumn 2018. The transect have been studied for above and below ground diversity.

Experimental Design and Methods

The variable studied in those transects and the ones which are going to be studied are as follows

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• Two transects per coupe
• Transects located 120 m apart
• Record the GPS location and bearing of the transect from 0 m location
• LAI photos, vegetation survey at each plot of 2 m radius at variable distance of the transects (for reference see the figure below)
• Record the elevation, slope and aspect
• Record the presence/absence of all the species with 2 m radius
• Measure the height and DBH of living stem greater than 5 cm
• Structure of the transects will be recorded at 10 m radius plot at -60, -10,10 and 60 m distance (for reference see the figure below)
• Record the height of 3 representative tree on this plot of 10 m radius
• Soil seed bank is collected at 28 x 0-5 cm depth soil samples from each plot at 2 m radius
• Each transect will have the seed dispersal trap at the distance of 1 m, 2m, 5 m, 8 m, 10 m, 15 m, 30 m, 60 m, 90 m and 120 m of 0.50 cm²
• Only one transect in each coupe will have manipulation plot were different densities of eucalypt will be manipulated to see the impact of the species diversity with different densities of the Eucalytpus. For this study, 3.57 m radius plot will be created in at 10 m from the edge of regrowth retention harvesting to create three different densities plot. Each plot will have one treatment. Treatments like no eucalyptus retained, 1 eucalyptus retained and 5 eucalyptus in each plot will be performed with one control plot.

Research Question 4:

Background

Tree species composition is basic attribute of forest ecosystem especially in the case of managed forest where it is often manipulated for the maximum benefit (Barbier, Gosselin et al. 2008). Understanding the role of the dominant trees in the managed forest, can be related back to the understorey composition, structure and biodiversity of the species (Bratton 1976). There are many ways of doing these studies for our this chapter we want to use remotely sensed data to understand the diversity of the stand in relation to the density of eucalypts. The latest development in the field of remotely sensed data for the field of forest ecology is Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). UAV allows to capture image of very high resolution to enhance the imagery on the level of individual tree species. The more information we provide about the forest area, structure, allometric relationships, biomass, volume; this can be used as the additional information for the species classification. Structural parameters of a species tree crown can be very beneficial for the forest mapping and gap identification. The aerial image of the gap in the tree crown can be linked back to the floristic diversity in the area. These kinds of study can be really cutting edge in the forest where light strongly limits regeneration (Getzin, Wiegand et al. 2012).

UAV has many advantages. A key feature of the UAV is that it is especially applicable to capturing high resolution images in small areas. In case of our study site we want to capture the drone imagery of the plots where we will establish the study for chapter 2. The reason for taking the high-resolution imagery in that area is to understand the understorey in relationship to the density of Eucalyptus. How does the floristics composition change with change in density of eucalypt species? Overall, it is a low-cost system which can be used in combination with the field work. Below is the sample picture of the plot recently taken for the trail.

 

  Relevance of the study

The study combines stand structure, regeneration pattern, environmental variance, vegetative development to maximize the understanding and strength of the knowledge regarding vegetative development in the eucalypt forest of southeastern Australia. It also merges the density of the stand, gap created due to failure in regeneration in human induced regeneration to the understanding of failure of regeneration with climate change. This study will combine different area of human induced regeneration and how it is affecting the floristics of the area. This study will model the effects of climate on the regeneration of eucalypt over a period. Try to understand the diversity of the stand when it fails to regenerate. Check the edge effect of the remaining stand followed by clear felling burning of plot. Understanding the mechanism of density on the freshly felled and burnt sites and how it is affected by regeneration. At the end, we will be able to understand how overstorey of the species can shape its understorey with the use of a UAV.

  Timeline for the completion of PhD

Time line for the completion of the project

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  Reference

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Fairman, T. A., C. R. Nitschke and L. T. Bennett (2016). “Too much, too soon? A review of the effects of increasing wildfire frequency on tree mortality and regeneration in temperate eucalypt forests.” International Journal of Wildland Fire 25(8).

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Appendix 1

Appendix 2 :

Methods for chapter 2

The study sites are Central Highlands. The coupes are distributed along this area and highly vary from each other based on size and distance between each other. Sites are selected by forest type and stand density. The plots selected are not burnt during any kind of fire after its establishment. Factors such as slope, aspect, elevation, rainfall, temperature are the major factors affecting the growth of the species. We will collect slope, aspect, elevation from the site and we already have the rainfall and temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) of the area from 1981 onwards.  The study will try to replicate the transects used by the VicForests survey but we will try to only do five plots based on the stand density. To capture more variability within the coupes, the transects will be based on homogenous stand density of low, medium and high. There will be 30 coupes studied in total and 10 coupes in each stand density.

General course of action for collection of data.

1. Mark, with tripod
2. Document arrival time
3. Coupe ID
4. Transect ID
5.  Plot ID
6. Date
7. Latitude
8. Longitude
9. Record other information in the field form
   1. Shrubs and herbs abundance in the plot
   2. Four tree species measure for DBH, height and crown width in each quadrant ( see figure below)
10. Stand characteristics

1. Canopy cover – 3.57 m radius plot will be used to study the canopy cover with a densiometer. Canopy of the four corner in four different direction will be measured and average for canopy cover
2. Stand structure will be distinguished into Dominant, codominant and intermediate

11. Seed bank collection (20 samples per plots in total 60 samples per transects)
12. Final verification and putting the soil sample code in the field format and noting the end time

Appendix 3.

Detailed sampling methods for transect survey for the regrowth retention harvesting

 Intact forest

Retained forest within influence of harvested edge (<= 60 m from edge)

 Harvested area within forest influence (<= 60 m from intact forest edge)

Harvested area outside of forest influence (>60 m from intact forest edge)

Transect

2 m radius plot sampling location (associated distances (m) from forest edge indicated, negative values indicate distance inside forest)

10 m radius plot sampling location

 Seed traps (there are more traps then shown in picture )

  Manipulation traps (there are more traps then shown in picture )

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