Challenges to Ending Ethnic Conflict

Why is ending ethnic conflict so difficult?

Currently there are more than forty armed active conflicts across the
globe. Many, like the ongoing conflict in Syria, have roots in ethnicity and
religion. Throughout history, ethnic conflicts have long been a key component
of international politics and affairs. Even today, in the post-cold war era,
stated by Francis Fukuyama to be the “end of history” ethnic wars proceed to be
the most common form of conflict around the globe. Ethnic conflict is considered
to be “any episode of sustained violent conflict in which national, ethnic, and
religious or other communal minorities challenge governments to seek major
changes in status” (Bates et. Al, 2003). This interpretation of ethnic conflict
belongs to the instrumentalist tradition most often associated with the
international theorist Bates.

Bates foremost point is that ethnic conflict is conflict among rational
agents over scarce resources. He buttresses this claim by organising an
astounding wealth of case-studies from Sub-Saharan Africa within his works.
Additionally, there are two other mainstream causes accepted as the cause of
conflict within international relations, these are the primordialist and
constructivist accounts.  

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In the recent years there have been multiple examples of ethnic conflict occurring, including ethnic war in Somalia, the Kurdish struggle for autonomy across Syria, Iran, Iraq and Turkey and guerilla wars in El Salvador (Sadowski, 1998). The United Kingdom itself has faced its own ethnic conflict in the past century, namely in Northern Ireland. All parties involved in the Northern Ireland conflict eventually came to what can be considered one of the greatest peace negotiations in history (BBC History, n.d.). The conflict in NI was eventually settled after years of bloody fighting and terror on the streets. This was down to a successful negotiated settlement through years of conflict transformation. However, this is not always the case and such a settlement is rarely achievable. It is claimed by many critics that ending ethnic conflict is difficult

This essay will set to determine the factors which often prevent ethnic
conflict from ending by; analysing various case studies, the individual context
of which such conflicts may have occurred and thoroughly analysing the
preventative measures and negotiated settlements which are frequently used and
attempted to limit and end conflict (within the field of international
relations). There are six key strategies to ending and transforming conflicts
namely; state building, autonomy, power sharing, federation, suppression and
negotiated settlements, all of which will be critically analysed in this essay.

The impact of negotiated settlements on ethnic conflict

Negotiated settlements can happen at three levels: national,
international and regional.  The concept is defined as “negotiation is
often a process of power-based dialogue intended to achieve certain goals or
ends, and which may or may not thoroughly resolve a particular dispute or disputes
to the satisfaction of all parties” (Gardner, 2011).

The impact of statebuilding on ethnic conflict

The first strategy of which will be discussed is state building. This
strategy is described in the following, “the construction of a state apparatus
defined by its monopoly of the
legitimate use of violence in a given territory” (Lottholz, and Lemay-Hébert, 2016).  Over the past two decades,
state-building has become an integral part in the path to peacebuilding and ending ethnic conflict by the
international community. State building is supposedly a method of institution
building, creating socio-cultural cohesion and allowing economic viability of
the state. However important political philosophers such as Leon Trotsky have
always mainteded the view that a state comes about as a result of violence not
peace. Observers across the political spectrum have come to see the
state-building approach as the preferred, but arguably unsuccessful, strategy
to peace building, evident in a number of recent high-profile conflicts, including
the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Anders Perssons agrees, stating “More
than two decades of Palestinian state-building have produced neither peace nor
a state. In fact, the Palestinians are seemingly further away from statehood
today than at any point since the state-building process began in the mid-90s”.
This is all despite the fact Palestine institutions in the West Bank fully
meeting the criteria of what makes a state by popular western institutions –
“the West Bank’s institutions now perform, according to the UN, the EU, the
World Bank and IMF, above the threshold for what is expected of a state”
(Persson, 2017) . There are many reasons for this with critic Marina Ottaway arguing that the international community “has
neither the will nor the way” (Ottaway, 2009) to build nations. In the case of
the Israel-Palestine conflict the lack of political will to recognise the
Palestinian state, could arguably be down to geopolitics and Israel’s ongoing
relationship with the West, in particular the United States. There are further
examples of State Building failing, for example in Somali which has long been
unstable since, and still to this day is embraced in conflict, the end of its
civil war in 1991. Tobias Hagman states “extraversion has been a frequent cause
and feature of failed inter-nationalized state building in Somalia” arguing
that “state building that is more coercive has increased rather than reduced
violent conflict”. (Hagman, 2016).

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The impact of regional autonomy on ethnic conflict

A further measure to ending
ethnic conflict is the granting of regional autonomy to restive ethnic groups
in an aim to prevent or end ethnic conflict. Yash Ghai defines autonomy as a
“device to allow ethnic or other groups that claim a distinct identity to
exercise direct control over affairs of special concern to them while allowing
the larger entity to exercise those powers that cover common interests”
(Committee on International Conflict Resolution, 2000) Between 1999 and 2009 it
is claimed new autonomous regions where created. There are vast examples of
autonomous regions across the globe, some created by international agreements
like Hong Kong via the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 or the more
recent example been the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland. Autonomous
regions can also be created internally, often as a result of inter-ethnic conflict.
An example of these internally created federal regions are the autonomous
communities of Catalonia and Basques Country in Spain. Yash Ghai, in Chapter 12
of International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War, considers autonomy as
a strategy for conflict management. Autonomy is typically seen as a successful
model, and up until recently the Spanish federal model could of been regarded
as successful and settled – “The Spanish federal system – was once viewed as a
model for countries around the world” (Garcia-Mila and McGuire, 2014). However,
recent economic challenges have rendered Catalonia’s questioning their share of
the deal, with commentators claiming “the largest tax contributors in Spain,
view the federal system as blatantly unfair” (Garcia-Mila and McGuire, 2014).
Evidently, this is somewhat true seen in the result of December 2017
referendum, now considered illegal. This caused Madrid to withdraw autonomous
status from the region and call new elections immediately. However, Catalonia
are still without a Premier with the leadership vote postponed again, as for
the fourth time the Spanish judiciary refuses to release candidate. It could be
said this particular gridlock questions the success of the model as well as
showing that years of autonomous status has not stopped the desire for
Catalonian independence. Other examples of the use of regional autonomy include
Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Bangladesh. In the case of Sri Lanka and the
ongoing Tamil-Sinhalese Conflict various forms of regional autonomy have been
promised but very little successfully attempted. There are minimal to no
noticeable differences in rights to the Tamil minority since the conflict began
in 1948, with both sides embroiled in constant conflict. Both India and Norway,
as third parties, have attempted to facilitate the path to regional autonomy,
to little avail proving that conflict peace building is a complicated and
messy.

The impact of power sharing on ethnic conflict

An additional method employed to end ethnic conflict is power
sharing. Power sharing is said to be a combination of autonomy and power
sharing to employ a deal with restive ethnic groups. This method has emerged in
Northern Ireland, Bosnia and Lebanon. The Northern Ireland Assembly, an
autonomous body within the UK, adopted the consociationalism approach developed
by Arend Lijphart. The Offical website for the Northern Irish Assembly defines
its particular model as “the Agreement determined that the Executive Committee
would be a power-sharing government, representing both unionists and
nationalists” with particular focus on “cross-community power sharing at
executive level”, “a proportional representation electoral system”,
“cultural equality for the two main traditions” for example the development
of the Irish language and Ulster Scots and “special voting arrangements
that give veto rights to the minority”. Northern Ireland can be claimed to be a
success, with some claiming it’s only “brought temporary calm” (Phillips) with
many Catholics still facing the same representation problems today. The
Assembly has seen its fair share of challenges, evident today as it still has
no executive following its 2017 elections, and in the past when direct rule was
imposed from London in October 2002 with devolved government not returning
until March 2007 following the St Andrews Agreement (BBC History, n.d.). On the
other hand the creation of the assembly and the passing of the Good Friday
Agreement by British Prime Minister Tony Blair can be regarded as having many
great achievements, the greatest arguably been creating an executive co-led by
both Martin McGuiness, the former IRA leader, and Ian Paisley, a key figure
head in the loyalist movements.  “Many could simply not believe quite how well the Catholic
nationalist Mr McGuinness would get on with the pro-Britain Protestant Mr
Paisley when they were thrust together in 2007” (ITV, 2017).

Other examples of attempts to end ethnic
conflict via employing power sharing are evident in Bosnia. Upon the dissolution of
the Yugoslav federation in 1990–91, Bosnia faced the challenge of managing
inter-ethnic relations in their considerably diverse society. Ethnic conflict,
via the Dayton and Ohrid agreements, “led to the restructuring of the
institutional and political architecture of each state, with the intention of
achieving greater inclusion and access to political power for all ethnic
groups”. This put an end to the violence. Since the end of the ethnic
conflicts, Bosnia is yet to plummet back into violence and armed conflict is
yet to return. However, ethnic tensions have remained. Nikolaos Zifakisi claims “eleven years after the end of the civil war, ethnic tension in
Bosnia is still as high as ever. All sides openly challenge the country’s
political system that was determined by the Dayton accords. From the above it
can be claimed that power sharing, as in the case of both Bosnia and Northern
Ireland, offer a solution to stopping violence but not solve the factors which
cause conflict in the first place.

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The impact of federalism on ethnic conflict

Federalisation of the
political system is one method which can be utilised in order to prevent ethnic
conflict. As mentioned previously it is often coupled with autonomy as evident
in Spain. Federalism was first coined in America’s constitutional convention of 1787, where those favouring a powerful
central government, adopted the name “federalists”. Those who wanted strong
states and a weak central government became the “anti-federalists” (Economist, 2017). Federalisation is claimed to be the
adoption of group proportional
representation in administrative appointments, including consensus decision-making
rule in the executive, which acknowledge group rights or non-territorial
federation. To do this a ‘proportional’ electoral system is implemented such as
the electoral college in the United States. The federal model in the US emerged
as a result of ending conflict and can be more than regarded as successful due
to how long it’s existed. Other examples of federalisation as a result of ethnic conflict include
India and Nepal. Federalism is
often recommended to prevent and manage conflicts, however its “adoption has
exacerbated ethnic conflict in Nepal” (Lawoti, 2016). Disenchantment has been running high in the
country, over the plan to divide the state into six provinces thus implementing
a federal system. As a result, tensions are particularly high among
marginalised groups, particularly those from the country’s far western and
plains regions. Conflict has arisen as provinces currently do not, and
under future plans will not, enjoy equal strength in terms of resource
distribution or sustainability, therefore effecting the development of the
nation. In the west of the country districts such as Surkhet are tense. India
provides another federal model which has faced its fair share of challenges
since the country was granted independence in 1947.  Jayaprakash Narayan
part of the ‘LokSatta movement’ for democratic reforms in India writes “the
efforts of the Union government to divide Andhra Pradesh irrespective of the
State legislature’s views, pose a grave danger to federalism and unity”
(Narayan, 2013) this arguable ignorance to the will of the people undermines
federalism as typically a state that’s regarded as federal, such as the US,
cannot be divided or merged with another state without the prior consent of the
central (federal government) and decentralised powers (state legislature).

The impact of suppression on ethnic conflict

The final method of
ending ethnic conflict which will be discussed is the tactic of suppression. It
often sees the use of military force and abuses of human rights to achieve its
goals. Example of the use of suppression can be seen in the Biafra people’s
ongoing fight for self-determination against the oppressive forces of Nigeria,
and particularly in the period of the Nigerian Civil War. When independence was
granted by Britain, Nigeria adopted a federal constitution, defining its
regions on the principal of ethnicity. By the mid-1960s the military, and the
economic situation worsened, ethnic tensions broke out. In May 1967, the head
of the Eastern Region of Nigeria, namely Emeka Ojukwu, declared the independent
Republic of Biafra (BBC, 2017). During the war there war reports of horrendous
atrocities been committed particularly the Assaba Massacre, in this particular
event it is estimated “more than 700 men and boys were killed, some as young as
12 years old, in addition to many more killed in the preceding days” (Biafra
TV, 2015). By the end of conflict over 50,000 military personal died and it is
said due to the human rights abuses and frequent use of military force over the
period of the 30 month war between 500,000 and 2,000,000 died of starvation
(Biafra TV, 2015). Despite the conflict ending, mainly due to means of
suppression, animosity still exists between the ethnic groups today. As
recently as May 2016 the Nigerian authorities have continued there suppression
of the Biafran people killing dozens at a pro-independence rally (This Day
Live, 2016). The South-East
Based Coalition of Human Rights Organisation claims 80 members of the
pro-Biafra group the IPOB and their supporters have been killed under the
directive of the Nigerian government between August 30, 2015 and February 9,
2016 (Okonkwo, 2018). This, for a multiple of reasons, is clearly not a method
which should be attempted to end ethnic conflict. It may have lessened the
threat of armed struggle in Nigeria but the animosity amongst the ethnic groups
is still as ripe as ever and the total disregard for Human Rights is not a
compromise worth paying.  

In summary it can be said there is no clear formula to how identity
wars should be addressed as unfortunately there is no ‘one size fits all’ solution for ending and managing
ethnic conflict.  No two conflicts are the same therefore there
is no transferable solution that can be replicated across conflicts, thus
making the process of ending them very difficult. In order for a conflict to
end there has to be political will within the international community. In the
case of Isreal-Palestine, described in the writings above, there is very little
political will therefore the likelihood of it ending is low. However, there
have been elements of success as mentioned in the writings above and lessons
can be learnt from them.

The peace process in Northern Ireland can, up to now at least, be
rightly considered a success. Today, Unionist and Republican voices are
represented in Stormont through a power-sharing arrangement in a way that is
proportional to their share of the electoral vote. The level of violence is now
below the level before the outbreak of the troubles, with the likelihood of
being a victim of crime today been lower than if one were living in England or
Wales (BBC, 2013). Despite this challenges have arisen for Stormont,
particularly recently where Northern Ireland had now had no executive for other
a year (Fenton, 2017). One reason for this could be that the reasons for the
conflict where never properly resolved and as mentioned above Republican
Catholics are still facing systematic intuitional oppression in Northern
Ireland and the increasing likelihood of direct rule from Westminster and a
hard border with the Republic of Ireland due to Brexit could cause conflict to
re-emerge (Jack, 2018) This suggests the conflict is not settled but that it is
just no longer violent.

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In conclusion ending ethnic conflict is difficult as meeting all the
criteria to do so appears (from the above) somewhat impossible to do. In order
to end conflict and agree a long-term workable solution there first must be popular
international political will, an agreeable compromise by all actors involved
that suits also suits all parties involved; and a proper transitional plan for
when a conflict cedes. Rarely does this ever happen and even the most lucrative
settlement (Good Friday Agreement) is on the verge of collapse (Jack, 2018).

References

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