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Posted: May 24th, 2023

Arctic Northern Sea Route: Prospects, Obstacles and Chinese Stance

Arctic Northern Sea Route: Prospects, Obstacles and Chinese Stance
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The Arctic region is undergoing rapid changes due to climate change, which is opening up new opportunities and challenges for global actors. One of the most significant developments is the emergence of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a maritime corridor that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the Russian Arctic coast. The NSR offers a shorter and cheaper alternative to the traditional routes via the Suez Canal or the Panama Canal, especially for countries like China that rely heavily on international trade and energy imports.

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However, the NSR is not without its difficulties and uncertainties. The route is still constrained by seasonal ice conditions, harsh weather, environmental risks, legal disputes, infrastructure gaps, and security concerns. Moreover, the NSR is largely under the control and influence of Russia, which has ambitious plans to develop and regulate the route as part of its national interests and strategic vision. China, as a rising power with growing interests and presence in the Arctic, has to balance its cooperation and competition with Russia in pursuing its own objectives and benefits from the NSR.

This blog post will provide an overview of the prospects, obstacles and Chinese stance on the NSR, based on the latest research and data available. It will also discuss some of the implications and recommendations for policy makers and stakeholders involved in Arctic affairs.

Prospects of the NSR
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The NSR has attracted increasing attention and utilization in recent years, as climate change has reduced the ice cover and extended the navigation season in the Arctic. According to a study by Liu et al. (2021), the NSR's transit window will expand by approximately 4 to 6.5 months by the end of the 21st century, depending on different emission scenarios. This means that the NSR could become a viable year-round shipping route in the near future.

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The main advantage of the NSR is that it can significantly shorten the distance and time of maritime transportation between Europe and Asia. For example, a trip from Dalian, China, to Rotterdam, the Netherlands along the NSR takes around 33 days, as opposed to 48 days via the Suez Canal. This can save up to 40% of fuel costs and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 25%. The NSR also offers access to abundant natural resources in the Arctic, such as oil, gas, minerals, and fishery.

The NSR has seen a remarkable growth in cargo volume in recent years, reaching a record high of 32.97 million tons in 2020. The main drivers of this growth are Russia's domestic shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its Yamal Peninsula to Asia and Europe, as well as China's imports of Russian oil via the NSR. However, the transit traffic of international vessels along the NSR remains low, accounting for only 1.4% of the total cargo volume in 2020. This indicates that there is still a large potential for further development and diversification of the NSR as a global shipping route.

Obstacles of the NSR
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Despite its promising prospects, the NSR faces many challenges and uncertainties that limit its attractiveness and feasibility for commercial shipping. Some of these obstacles are:

- **Ice conditions**: Although climate change has reduced the ice extent and thickness in the Arctic, it has also increased its variability and unpredictability. The NSR is still subject to seasonal ice cover, which requires icebreaker assistance or ice-class vessels for safe navigation. The ice conditions also vary depending on different segments and sectors of the route, which adds complexity and uncertainty to planning and scheduling.
- **Weather conditions**: The Arctic region is characterized by extreme weather conditions, such as low temperatures, strong winds, fog, snowstorms, icing, and polar night. These conditions pose significant risks and challenges for navigation, communication, navigation aids, rescue operations, and human health.
- **Environmental risks**: The Arctic ecosystem is fragile and vulnerable to pollution and disturbance from human activities. Any oil spill or accident along the NSR could have devastating consequences for wildlife, biodiversity,
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and local communities. Moreover, shipping along the NSR could also contribute to climate change by increasing black carbon emissions and reducing albedo effect.
- **Legal disputes**: The legal status and regime of the NSR is not fully settled or recognized by all parties involved. Russia claims that most of the NSR falls within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) or internal waters, which gives it sovereign rights to regulate and charge fees for navigation along the route. However, some other countries, such as the United States and the European Union, argue that parts of the NSR are international straits that should be open to free and innocent passage under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). These conflicting claims could lead to disputes or conflicts over the interpretation and application of international law in the Arctic.
- **Infrastructure gaps**: The NSR lacks adequate infrastructure and services to support safe and efficient shipping operations. These include ports, terminals, icebreakers, search and rescue (SAR) facilities, meteorological and hydrographic information, navigation aids, communication systems, insurance, and legal services. The development of such infrastructure requires substantial investment and coordination among various stakeholders, both public and private.
- **Security concerns**: The NSR is also subject to geopolitical and strategic considerations, as it affects the interests and influence of major powers in the Arctic. Russia views the NSR as a vital component of its national security and economic development, and has deployed military assets and personnel to protect and assert its sovereignty and control over the route. China, as a rising power with growing interests and presence in the Arctic, has to balance its cooperation and competition with Russia in pursuing its own objectives and benefits from the NSR. Other countries, such as the United States and NATO allies, are also concerned about the potential implications of the NSR for their security and stability in the region.

Chinese Stance on the NSR
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China has shown increasing interest and involvement in the NSR in recent years, as part of its broader engagement with the Arctic region. China defines itself as a "near-Arctic state" and a "stakeholder" in Arctic affairs, and claims that it has legitimate rights and interests in participating in Arctic governance and development. China's main motivations for engaging with the NSR are:

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- **Economic benefits**: China is the world's largest trading nation and energy consumer, and relies heavily on maritime transportation for its imports and exports. The NSR offers China an alternative and faster route to connect with its major markets and suppliers in Europe and Asia, as well as access to abundant natural resources in the Arctic. China's involvement in the NSR is also driven by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure and connectivity project that aims to enhance China's economic influence and leadership. In 2018, China issued its first Arctic policy white paper, which proposed to build a "Polar Silk Road" by jointly developing the NSR with relevant countries. China has also signed agreements with Russia and other Arctic states to cooperate on infrastructure, energy, trade, scientific research, and environmental protection along the NSR.
- **Strategic interests**: China is also interested in the NSR from a strategic perspective, as it could provide China with more options and flexibility for its maritime security and diplomacy. The NSR could reduce China's dependence on the traditional routes via the Malacca Strait or the Suez Canal, which are vulnerable to piracy, terrorism, or blockade by hostile forces. The NSR could also enhance China's presence and influence in the Arctic region, which is becoming more important for global governance and geopolitics. China has sought to increase its voice and role in Arctic affairs by joining various regional forums and mechanisms, such as the Arctic Council (as an observer), the International Maritime Organization (IMO), or
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