a b s t r a c t

According to the latest Global Tracking Framework (2015), 18% of the global and 57% of the African population live without access to electricity services—a key impediment towards social and economic growth. Accelerating access to electricity requires, inter alia, strategies and programmes that effectively address and account for the geographical, infrastructural and socioeconomic characteristics of a country or region. This paper focuses on considering these characteristics by developing a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology to inform electrification planning and strategies. The methodology is applied to Nigeria in order to identify the optimal mix of electrification options, ranging from grid extensions to mini-grid and off-grid solutions. The case study illustrates how this optimal mix is influenced by a range of parameters—including population density, existing and planned transmission networks and power plants, economic activities, tariffs for grid-based electricity, technology costs for mini-grid and off-grid systems and fuel costs for consumers. For a certain level of energy access, on-grid connections would be optimal for the majority of the new connections in Nigeria; grid extension constitutes the lowest cost option for approximately 86% of the newly electrified population in this modelling effort with 2030 as the time horizon. However, there are some remote areas with low population densities where a mini-grid or a stand-alone solution are the most economic options; deploying some combination of solar, wind, hydro and diesel technologies depending on the locational resource availability.

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© 2015 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Introduction

The provision of reliable, secure, and affordable energy services is necessary to ensure economic and social development (IEA, 2014a). Universal access to electricity by 2030 is one of the key goals of the

UN Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) initiative (The World Bank, 2013). While the need for increased electrification rates is widely recognised in national policies in developing countries (WHO, 2009), (IEA, 2011), there are diverging views on how to achieve this. Commonly, one electrification option, such as grid extension, mini-grid or standalone connection, is preferred over another for various reasons depending on the perspective, the background, and the experience of the implementing body. For example, while an NGO (non-governmental organization) or IGO (international governmental organization) might have prioritised off-grid solutions, a large financing initiative such as Power Africa may lean towards expanding the transmission network (AfDB, 2014). Overall, there are limited comparative analyses that aim at providing comprehensive assessments of the optimal mix of such options (see Previous GIS-based assessments).